CHINA AS A GLOBAL HEGEMONY
Background:
Around 100–200 years ago, China went through a period called “century of humiliation” when their historically strong and advanced civilization was dictated by a plethora of foreign governments (look up Opium wars, Japanese invasion of China, etc.). Since then, Chinese governments have only one goal in mind: To restore the glory of their past when they are the strongest, most prosperous, and most advanced civilization on earth that every other countries looks up into.
Now, China emerges as potential world superpower in terms of economy (massive economic growth, sponsoring infrastructure constructions in Africa, Chinese brands like Xiaomi and Alibaba existing everywhere, being a significant trading partner for virtually every country, etc.), militarily (development of specific anti-carrier weapons, supercomputers that are faster than that of US, technologies similar to GPS), etc.
What does China really wants? How will their hegemony be like?
Around 100–200 years ago, China went through a period called “century of humiliation” when their historically strong and advanced civilization was dictated by a plethora of foreign governments (look up Opium wars, Japanese invasion of China, etc.). Since then, Chinese governments have only one goal in mind: To restore the glory of their past when they are the strongest, most prosperous, and most advanced civilization on earth that every other countries looks up into.
To achieve this, they are currently doing two things:
1. Establishing peace within their borders and regional hegemony in areas that they historically perceive to be theirs (Their current to-do list on this: Establish local dominance in East Asian places like Taiwan and South China Sea → this puts them at odds with the US who have the interest to maintain its global hegemony)
2. Continuing its modernization and economic development, while at the same time consolidating their national identity in order to get recognition as the most advanced civilization on the planet and eventually being looked up to by other nations. (Their current to-do list on this: Invest in various places like Africa, increasing prosperity of their citizens, so the current government receives legitimacy and so that there’ll be no unrest going on)
But there is a problem with this model. Government in contemporary China derives its legitimacy almost entirely from its ability to deliver continued rapid economic growth. It stands for no credible values, neither trusts nor is trusted by those it rules, suffers from a high level of corruption, and has no clear vision for self-improvement. If America’s politics are widely viewed as so venal as to be dysfunctional, the Chinese system is seen as cynically manipulative and of questionable legitimacy. Without political reform, China will remain vulnerable to unrest should the economy falter. If there is no rule of law in China, Beijing’s word will be doubted abroad. Despite its economic successes and growing defense capabilities, China’s international influence will remain limited as long as it fails to evolve an attractive political system. It is not impossible that it may do so but there is no evidence at present to suggest that it will.
What is the difference of China’s hegemony to that of the US and the other Western powers?
America’s hegemony has rested upon three pillars: open trade, strong alliances and the promotion of human rights and democratic values, oftentimes to the extent of military intervention in various parts of the world such as the Middle East. But unlike US, China will most likely not be physically expansionist (outside in historically perceived to be Chinese areas like Taiwan).
Also, unlike the US and former Western colonial nations (UK, France, etc.), China also has no messianic ideology to export (Unlike US exporting democracies in the Middle East); no doctrine of “manifest destiny” to advance; no imperative of territorial expansion to act upon; no exclusion from contemporary global governance to overcome; no satellite states to garrison; no overseas colonies or ideological dependencies to protect; no history of power projection or military intervention beyond its immediate frontiers; no entangling alliances or bases abroad.
Given that, China’s hegemony will not involve much use of military power. China’s history includes examples of aggressive actions along its borders — especially in Korea and Vietnam. But overall China has been notable for its cautious, defensive, and inward-looking national security posture. The Great Wall stands as a symbol of this as does the scuttling of the Ming fleet in 1437. Despite a formidable history of innovation in military technology and warfare on a scale commensurate with its huge population and vast size, the Chinese strategic tradition stresses that weapons are inauspicious instruments to be used only when the use of force is unavoidable.
So most likely the power projection of China would be cultural, establishing their values as something to be followed by everyone else. What kind of values are we talking about? Subservience to a strong centralized state instead of individualism and suspicion to the state, global recognition that China is the most contribute civilization to humanity, etc.
What is the current China’s relation with the US like
Complex. For one, their governance system is at tension with each other. China’s system of politics, both bureaucratic and authoritarian, has helped economic development at home, but is alien to American notions of democracy. American policymakers have traditionally seen liberal democratic values and an emphasis on human rights as factors that legitimize and strengthen the international order. Chinese policymakers see them as Western conspiracies to foster the kind of color revolutions that brought down authoritarian former Soviet regimes, and might attempt to do the same in China.
Moreover, China’s desire to replace US as the dominant military power in East Asia also puts the two nations in tension, as the US still wants to be a hegemonic military power in all areas of the world and protect its allies in the area. But China and US remains a strong economic partner, exporting and importing billions of dollars from each other annually.
Sources
www.mepc.org/speeches/chinas-challenge-american-hegemony
www.economist.com/news/special-report/21720714-after-seven-decades-hegemony-asia-america-now-has-accommodate-increasingly
www.martinjacques.com/articles/what-will-chinese-hegemony-look-like/
http://thediplomat.com/2017/06/would-china-be-a-benign-hegemon/